Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf2b…0e62 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$2
other 39% −$21
politics 7% $0
crypto 0% −$3
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 30% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 23 +1.6% -8.1% 39% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 23 +1.6% -8.1% 39% 9% -9.3%
all 37 -2.0% -11.3% 38% 8% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 8% -11.5%
10% -19.8% 3% -20.0%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.7%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage283d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $41 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $46 −$2 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $39 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $48 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $13 $0 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +18%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $42 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $19 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $28 −$22 -76%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 05 $5 −$3 -73%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $43 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $42 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 18h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $19 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $19 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $25 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $11 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records