Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf2b…0728
crypto · 692 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,098 -51%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$343 · open −$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$790
Realized+$343
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses74 / 590
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions34
Markets (closed)664 / 692
History coverage35d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 34 History 664 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days−$39
30 days+$512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $77 $83 +$6 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $79 $82 +$3 (+4%)
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? No 74¢ 69¢ $74 $69 −$5 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $50 $68 +$17 (+34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 56¢ $51 $56 +$4 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $56 $48 −$7 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $44 $39 −$5 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $45 $37 −$8 (-17%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-12%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 74¢ 80¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+8%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $21 $24 +$2 (+12%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $19 $22 +$4 (+18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-20%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $21 $18 −$4 (-17%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $8 $16 +$8 (+94%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $16 $9 −$6 (-40%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-57%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 72¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+93%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 71¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $255 +$145 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $119 −$119 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 05 $47 −$47 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $17 +$13 +78%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $169 +$31 +18%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $36 +$14 +40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $161 +$39 +24%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $65 −$25 -38%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? May 24 $23 +$4 +17%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $1 +$63 +6269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$529
crypto 26% −$244
sports 21% −$12
world 4% +$13
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 42m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $61 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $255 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $119 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $10 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $0 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $12 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $51 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 20¢ $10 36h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 15¢ $10 2d
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch BUY Yes 1¢ $8 9d
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY Yes 1¢ $12 10d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch BUY Yes 18¢ $36 13d
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $17 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $161 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $169 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $32 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -47.7% -52.7% 33% 33% -4.5%
≤30d 195 -58.3% -62.2% 6% 6% +20.3%
≤90d 664 -59.3% -63.2% 11% 11% -1.7%
all 664 -59.3% -63.2% 11% 11% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -63.2% 11% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -66.7% 11% -11.1%
15% -69.9% 10% -19.7%
20% -72.9% 10% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $789.69 · official $783.71 (match) · 3500 history records