Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf2a…5338 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
other 16% −$1
politics 12% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 17 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -0.7% -10.2% 30% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage275d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $29 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $44 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $57 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $59 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $26 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $50 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $27 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $60 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $3 $0 -7%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 05 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $4 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 26 $26 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $6 −$1 -12%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $23 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 87¢ $20 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 87¢ $9 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $29 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $27 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $21 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $18 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $14 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $11 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $21 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $22 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $26 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $29 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $29 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $15 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $10 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $20 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 292 history records