Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AF 0xaf29…35b5 crypto 2290 markets active 6d ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (291 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$233 (+1%) realized +$233 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%1113W / 497L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day290.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$7,862
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (291 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 498 -50.6% -55.3% 25% 25% -39.7%
≤30d 1610 +34.8% +22.0% 69% 69% +31.3%
≤90d 1610 +34.8% +22.0% 69% 69% +31.3%
all 1610 +34.8% +22.0% 69% 69% +31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover290.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.0% 69% +31.3%
10% ← realistic here +10.3% 69% +18.7%
15% -0.3% 69% +7.2%
20% -10.1% 69% -3.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1113 / 497
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1610 / 2290
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day290.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1610 Trades
no open positions (497 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.00 · official $60.00 (match) · 3500 history records