Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf28…7f92 world 49 markets active 6d ago coverage 700d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$149,391 (-26%) realized −$164,358 · open +$14,967
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate57%24W / 18L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11,882per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$41,140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14,544
14 days+$21,487
30 days+$26,754
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$124,016
world 29% −$54,467
economics 15% +$22,110
crypto 11% +$8,701
sports 4% −$1,076
other 2% −$343
tech 0% −$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +211.8% +182.1% 100% 100% +182.1%
≤30d 11 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 45% +25.5%
≤90d 16 +30.4% +18.0% 69% 44% +18.6%
all 42 -6.2% -15.2% 57% 33% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 33% -36.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 29% -42.4%
15% -30.7% 19% -47.9%
20% -37.5% 10% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$18,254) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,646 vs −$12,654 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

700d coverage
Net worth$41,140
Realized−$164,358
Unrealized+$14,967
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses24 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions7
Markets (closed)42 / 49
History coverage700d
Avg bet$11,882
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 7¢ 24¢ $6,988 $24,460 +$17,471 (+250%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 25¢ 44¢ $7,079 $12,144 +$5,065 (+72%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 86¢ $2,640 $2,595 −$45 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 5¢ $8,870 $1,836 −$7,034 (-79%)
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? No 46¢ 10¢ $367 $84 −$283 (-77%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $220 $19 −$202 (-91%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6,867 +$14,544 +212%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,075 −$1,050 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4,766 +$8,972 +188%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $491 −$480 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 09 $3,696 −$3,601 -97%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 09 $95 −$90 -95%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $1,262 +$613 +49%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $39,169 +$3,303 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,358 +$1,300 +39%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $8,027 +$3,743 +47%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $410 +$1,590 +388%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 07 $10,363 +$137 +1%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27? May 01 $577 +$3 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $19,950 +$10,050 +50%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $26,190 +$798 +3%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 22 $6,201 −$919 -15%
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 22 $12,486 −$264 -2%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 22 $2,326 −$712 -31%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Mar 22 $632 +$166 +26%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $26,665 +$415 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $988 +$69 +7%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $24,288 +$915 +4%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 01 $19,750 +$5,250 +27%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 25 $18,450 +$1,866 +10%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Jan 06 $13,786 +$4,789 +35%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 12 $53,232 −$53,231 -100%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 12 $374 −$374 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Mar 12 $14,400 −$14,400 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Mar 12 $18,254 −$18,254 -100%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presiden Dec 30 $5,751 −$5,751 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $119,500 −$113,750 -95%
Will Biden finish his term? Aug 14 $47,573 −$13,153 -28%
Will Biden say "Covid" during drop out speech? Aug 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? Aug 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Will someone else win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 14 $952 −$952 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Aug 14 $3,296 +$595 +18%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $520 +$236 +46%
Ethereum ETF begins trading by July 26? Jul 24 $13,717 +$352 +3%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jul 22 $8,288 +$1,349 +16%
Biden drops out in July? Jul 22 $8,120 +$2,159 +27%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 19 $9,150 +$300 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $220 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1,075 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $2,640 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 50¢ $384 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 50¢ $49 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 50¢ $2 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 50¢ $28 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 50¢ $0 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 50¢ $5 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 50¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $5,170 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $241 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $2,076 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $1,991 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $190 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $117 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $1,000 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $470 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,211 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $2,053 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $179 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $6 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $3 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1,134 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $491 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2,765 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $233 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,139.59 · official $41,139.59 (match) · 1472 history records