Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AF 0xaf24…a697 sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,465 (+19%) realized +$1,492 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate71%27W / 11L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,258
7 days+$1,608
14 days+$1,608
30 days+$1,684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$762
other 43% +$758
world 4% +$68
politics 4% +$101
crypto 3% −$158
finance 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +21.5% +9.9% 73% 70% +12.4%
≤30d 31 +22.8% +11.1% 74% 71% +13.0%
≤90d 37 +18.7% +7.4% 73% 70% +9.8%
all 38 +17.7% +6.5% 71% 68% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 68% +9.6%
10% -3.7% 61% -0.9%
15% -13.0% 47% -10.5%
20% -21.5% 29% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$99 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized+$1,492
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses27 / 11
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage92d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $200 $157 −$43 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $202 +$7 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $302 +$79 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $704 +$164 +23%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $203 −$114 -56%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 19 $101 +$51 +51%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $204 +$367 +180%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$56 +56%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $154 −$37 -24%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 19 $112 +$61 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $302 +$131 +44%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $202 +$89 +44%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $301 +$57 +19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 +$48 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$188 +93%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$47 +46%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$60 -59%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $403 +$140 +35%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$123 -61%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 −$258 -85%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $203 −$171 -84%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $505 +$208 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $405 +$247 +61%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$82 -80%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$16 +16%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $303 +$177 +58%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $203 +$193 +95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$28 -27%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $120 +$76 +63%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $67 +$33 +49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $49 +$15 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $176 −$176 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $246 +$35 +14%
Will Solana reach $100 in March? Mar 28 $31 +$18 +57%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Mar 26 $54 −$36 -67%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 21 $31 −$6 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 18m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $109 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 92¢ $100 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $382 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 54¢ $100 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 71¢ $101 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $101 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $101 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $101 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $868 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 93¢ $301 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 19¢ $40 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 23¢ $48 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 24¢ $2 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 43¢ $102 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $102 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 5h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 99¢ $152 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 5h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $571 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $158 7h
United States to score first vs. Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 7h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $204 21h
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $117 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.62 · official $372.62 (match) · 141 history records