Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:26:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf23…aa95
world · 172 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$48,513 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$48,380 · open +$63
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$69,324
Realized+$48,380
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses83 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions72
Markets (closed)110 / 172
History coverage18d
Avg bet$2,576
Trades / day193.5
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 72 History 110 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,332
7 days+$10,512
14 days+$39,822
30 days+$48,380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 93¢ 94¢ $7,339 $7,457 +$118 (+2%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $6,518 $7,032 +$514 (+8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 82¢ 94¢ $4,972 $5,712 +$740 (+15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $5,062 $4,916 −$147 (-3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $3,969 $3,967 −$2 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $2,983 $2,904 −$79 (-3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,313 $2,333 +$20 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? No 95¢ 95¢ $2,269 $2,279 +$10 (+0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,020 $2,040 +$20 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,917 $1,959 +$42 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 78¢ $2,088 $1,949 −$139 (-7%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 57¢ 70¢ $1,468 $1,805 +$337 (+23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 85¢ $1,600 $1,700 +$100 (+6%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 84¢ 78¢ $1,738 $1,633 −$105 (-6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,360 $1,428 +$68 (+5%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 87¢ 86¢ $1,286 $1,279 −$7 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $1,384 $1,193 −$191 (-14%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 93¢ 98¢ $1,100 $1,155 +$55 (+5%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 93¢ 96¢ $930 $962 +$32 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? No 94¢ 98¢ $910 $947 +$37 (+4%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $846 $835 −$11 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $1,065 $776 −$290 (-27%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? No 90¢ 98¢ $707 $775 +$67 (+10%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 92¢ 69¢ $939 $709 −$230 (-24%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 68¢ $750 $685 −$65 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $320 −$50 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $30,096 +$996 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $3,605 +$192 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $99 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $601 +$51 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $985 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $979 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $26,160 +$326 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $9,414 +$872 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 11 $1,775 +$4 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $2,348 +$16 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $957 +$15 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $973 +$1 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -68%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 11 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 11 $632 −$207 -33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $1,692 −$686 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1,804 −$37 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $910 −$10 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $2,876 −$292 -10%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $18,253 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 11 $4,062 −$50 -1%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $185 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $700 +$10 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4,220 +$30 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $6,009 −$324 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1,754 −$24 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $1,801 +$80 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,498 +$163 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $17,149 +$406 +2%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $95 −$2 -2%
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Jun 10 $97 +$990 +1022%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $3,468 +$172 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,997 +$108 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $7,715 +$435 +6%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,963 +$649 +33%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $68 −$25 -37%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $73 +$8 +10%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $48 +$2 +4%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $4,113 +$26 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $108 −$3 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $16,333 +$1,392 +8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $2,962 +$37 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $6,180 +$1,727 +28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $396 +$209 +53%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $501 +$288 +58%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $19,891 +$997 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 64% +$36,418
politics 16% +$8,483
tech 9% +$82
other 6% +$1,531
crypto 3% +$1,667
finance 2% +$225
sports 1% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 79¢ $632 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $242 5m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,580 7m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 11m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 14m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $18 15m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $14 15m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 15m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 96¢ $1,020 15m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $355 15m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $122 16m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 78¢ $11 16m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 44¢ $2 18m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 44¢ $16 22m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 80¢ $984 24m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY No 96¢ $7 25m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 79¢ $574 44m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 79¢ $298 44m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 78¢ $645 44m
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO SELL No 27¢ $113 44m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 70¢ $241 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $715 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $121 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 49¢ $50 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $50 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $3 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 97¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+73.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +79.9% +62.7% 64% 17% -5.4%
≤30d 110 +91.7% +73.4% 75% 39% +3.6%
≤90d 110 +91.7% +73.4% 75% 39% +3.6%
all 110 +91.7% +73.4% 75% 39% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover193.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +73.4% 39% +3.6%
10% +56.8% 28% -6.3%
15% ← realistic here +41.7% 24% -15.3%
20% +27.8% 20% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69,323.66 · official $69,284.78 (match) · 3500 history records