trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -68.6% | -71.6% | 17% | 17% | -24.9% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -37.2% | -43.2% | 27% | 27% | -16.9% |
| ≤90d | 37 | -20.3% | -27.9% | 30% | 27% | -15.6% |
| all | 85 | -6.5% | -15.4% | 46% | 41% | -26.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.4% | 41% | -26.1% |
| 10% | -23.5% | 35% | -33.2% |
| 15% | -30.9% | 28% | -39.7% |
| 20% | -37.7% | 24% | -45.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 | Over | 46¢ | 46¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 | Over | 41¢ | 40¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Ebola case in the US by June 30? | No | 77¢ | 92¢ | $20 | $24 | +$4 (+20%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 90¢ | 96¢ | $20 | $21 | +$1 (+6%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 90¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 | Jun 17 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 | Jun 16 | $71 | +$63 | +88% |
| Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 | Jun 16 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 | Jun 15 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Jun 14 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 | Jun 07 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 07 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $20 | +$38 | +188% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 | Jun 05 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 | Jun 04 | $20 | +$17 | +83% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 | Jun 04 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 | May 21 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | May 21 | $20 | −$2 | -10% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 | May 20 | $20 | +$19 | +93% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $20 | +$40 | +197% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) | May 15 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | May 14 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 12 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 12 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 09 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 09 | $51 | +$51 | +101% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 07 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Spread: Spurs (-9.5) | May 06 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | May 06 | $10 | +$19 | +188% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 30 | $21 | −$10 | -49% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Apr 29 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Apr 29 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Apr 29 | $10 | +$41 | +414% |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Apr 27 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 26 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 26 | $10 | +$26 | +262% |
| Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) | Apr 20 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Spread: Celtics (-12.5) | Apr 20 | $50 | +$45 | +90% |
| Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5 | Apr 17 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 17 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Rockets vs. Heat | Feb 28 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Feb 28 | $12 | +$2 | +17% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru | Feb 10 | $10 | +$2 | +23% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Feb 02 | $8 | +$2 | +22% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET | Jan 22 | $140 | −$90 | -64% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET | Jan 22 | $280 | −$244 | -87% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET | Jan 22 | $111 | +$18 | +16% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET | Jan 22 | $100 | −$99 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | Jan 22 | $70 | −$69 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | Jan 22 | $50 | +$3 | +7% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Jan 22 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET | Jan 22 | $20 | +$29 | +146% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET | Jan 22 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |