Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf1c…4698 world 49 markets active 2d ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$2
other 20% $0
politics 10% $0
crypto 9% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.5% 78% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 -0.0% -9.5% 47% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 17 -0.0% -9.5% 47% 0% -9.2%
all 49 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage276d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $116 −$2 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $65 +$3 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $65 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $47 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $1 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 27 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $1 $0 +10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $73 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $11 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $44 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $25 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $25 46h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $32 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $48 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $48 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $48 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $48 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records