Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:57:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AF 0xaf1c…2cca world 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$25 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$2
other 18% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 3 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 3 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.4%
all 3 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 0% -7.4%
10% -15.8% 0% -16.3%
15% -23.9% 0% -24.4%
20% -31.4% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage6d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $455 $453 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 18 $456 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $249 +$21 +8%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $250 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $455 9m
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $456 13m
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $456 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 92¢ $249 6d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 6d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $231 6d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $250 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.87 · official $452.87 (match) · 8 history records