Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf1a…ba1e other 458 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$58,993 (+18%) realized +$58,631 · open +$362
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%270W / 181L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$732per market
Trades / day131.7pace
Fees−$3,126est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$12,353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$11,386
other 39% +$24,734
world 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +41.8% +28.3% 65% 65% +10.8%
≤30d 451 +35.2% +22.3% 60% 57% -1.6%
≤90d 451 +35.2% +22.3% 60% 57% -1.6%
all 451 +35.2% +22.3% 60% 57% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.3% 57% -1.6%
10% +10.6% 55% -11.0%
15% ← realistic here -0.1% 53% -19.6%
20% -9.9% 47% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$811) neutral
Persistence
early +24% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$640 vs −$806 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$12,353
Realized+$58,631
Unrealized+$362
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses270 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$3,126
Open positions13
Markets (closed)451 / 458
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$732
Trades / day131.7
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals No 67¢ 68¢ $10,720 $10,960 +$240 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 54¢ $720 $802 +$82 (+11%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals No 68¢ 72¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals No 36¢ 38¢ $116 $124 +$8 (+7%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 47¢ 60¢ $51 $65 +$14 (+27%)
Declan Rice: 1+ assists No 75¢ 79¢ $50 $52 +$3 (+5%)
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ shots Yes 67¢ 66¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-1%)
Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots Yes 59¢ 56¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-4%)
Ante Budimir: 1+ shots Yes 58¢ 55¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Antoine Semenyo: 2+ shots Yes 30¢ 43¢ $16 $24 +$7 (+43%)
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots Yes 19¢ 20¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+186%)
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Yes 14¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 178 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? Jun 27 $3 −$1,923 -64096%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5) Jun 27 $879 −$879 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 27 $4,320 −$4,320 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 27 $320 −$320 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 27 $3,650 +$1,350 +37%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots Jun 26 $29 +$31 +108%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots Jun 26 $708 +$2,416 +341%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $14,497 +$7,814 +54%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1,645 +$1,855 +113%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $7 +$4 +54%
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots Jun 26 $88 +$428 +486%
Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots Jun 26 $155 +$161 +104%
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals Jun 26 $769 +$85 +11%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots Jun 26 $8 +$24 +317%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 26 $44 +$17 +39%
Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots Jun 26 $15 +$14 +92%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 26 $811 +$166 +20%
Malik Tillman: 1+ assists Jun 26 $3 +$1 +24%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals Jun 26 $111 +$26 +24%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $449 −$449 -100%
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots Jun 26 $6 +$8 +138%
Viktor Gyökeres: 4+ shots Jun 26 $49 +$40 +82%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 26 $741 +$92 +12%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $487 +$219 +45%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists Jun 26 $389 +$159 +41%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 26 $62 +$32 +52%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 26 $37 +$15 +41%
Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ shots Jun 25 $1 +$8 +567%
Kai Havertz: 5+ shots Jun 25 $2 +$1 +61%
Kai Havertz: 4+ shots Jun 25 $31 +$33 +106%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 5+ shots Jun 25 $66 +$31 +48%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $2,550 +$2,450 +96%
Amad Diallo: 1+ assists Jun 25 $37 +$16 +45%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 25 $17 +$6 +33%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $4 +$1 +32%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $9 +$5 +54%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ assists Jun 25 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $706 +$321 +45%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $1,410 −$1,159 -82%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 25 $29 −$28 -99%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ assists Jun 25 $202 −$202 -100%
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ assists Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Lee Kangin: 2+ shots Jun 25 $2 +$3 +194%
Son Heungmin: 3+ shots Jun 25 $4 +$4 +100%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 25 $4,256 +$1,817 +43%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals Jun 25 $681 +$51 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $0 8m
Declan Rice: 1+ assists BUY No 75¢ $9 1h
Declan Rice: 1+ assists BUY No 75¢ $3 1h
Declan Rice: 1+ assists BUY No 75¢ $38 2h
Ante Budimir: 1+ shots BUY Yes 58¢ $29 2h
Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots BUY Yes 59¢ $33 2h
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ shots BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ shots BUY Yes 67¢ $37 2h
Antoine Semenyo: 2+ shots BUY Yes 30¢ $17 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $3,344 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $6 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $1,487 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $7 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $3 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $2,842 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $6 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $102 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $456 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $4 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $406 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $10 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $17 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $197 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $4 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $4 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $92 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $12 11h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $30 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,353.46 · official $12,353.99 (match) · 3500 history records