Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xaf1a…1988 crypto 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 649d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$480 (+2%) realized +$528 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate42%78W / 107L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$8,320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$1,610
crypto 34% −$521
politics 21% −$996
sports 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 162 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 9% -20.9%
all 185 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 13% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 13% -8.7%
10% -27.1% 9% -17.4%
15% -34.2% 5% -25.4%
20% -40.6% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$24 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

649d coverage
Net worth$8,320
Realized+$528
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses78 / 107
Open positions3
Markets (closed)185 / 188
History coverage649d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3,608 $3,595 −$13 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3,590 $3,559 −$30 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1,170 $1,165 −$5 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $120 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 29 $110 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 29 $58 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 17 $91 −$11 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 17 $17 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 17 $92 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 17 $115 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $101 −$22 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 17 $91 −$19 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 15 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 15 $166 −$15 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 15 $72 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 15 $165 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 15 $119 −$24 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 15 $43 −$13 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 15 $158 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 14 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 14 $36 +$25 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 14 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 14 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 14 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 14 $9 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 14 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 14 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 14 $11 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 14 $99 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 14 $88 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 14 $45 −$19 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 14 $87 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 14 $241 −$43 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 14 $18 −$6 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 14 $65 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 14 $67 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 13 $53 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 13 $83 −$8 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 13 $78 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 13 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 13 $54 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 13 $76 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 13 $89 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 13 $68 −$18 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $29 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $55 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2,391 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3,804 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,231 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,231 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $13 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $13 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $12 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $13 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $12 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,319.66 · official $8,319.66 (match) · 1483 history records