Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf17…5c20 weather 683 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18,636 (+146%) realized +$18,873 · open −$237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate16%113W / 602L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day135.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% +$3,984
other 9% −$730
sports 5% +$884
crypto 0% −$52
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 369 -15.6% -23.6% 13% 12% +15.8%
≤30d 715 -8.1% -16.8% 16% 14% +12.8%
≤90d 715 -8.1% -16.8% 16% 14% +12.8%
all 715 -8.1% -16.8% 16% 14% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 14% +12.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 13% +2.0%
15% -32.0% 12% -7.8%
20% -38.7% 12% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$10 · ×7.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,306
Realized+$18,873
Unrealized−$237
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses113 / 602
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions23
Markets (closed)715 / 683
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day135.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 715 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $500 $840 +$340 (+68%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $500 $160 −$340 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 18¢ 75¢ $30 $129 +$99 (+326%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 5¢ 18¢ $10 $38 +$28 (+271%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $23 $22 −$2 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $10 $14 +$5 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+136%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+192%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 476 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 4? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 43°C on May 18? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 6? Jun 16 $2 −$15 -733%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 6? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 12? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 22? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on May 8? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C or higher on May 13? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 27? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28? Jun 16 $4 −$10 -233%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Jun 16 $22 −$28 -126%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on May 12? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 1? Jun 16 $8 +$195 +2531%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 23? Jun 16 $6 +$17 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on May 12? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on April 8? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 19? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on April 23? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 23? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 11? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 20 Jun 16 $3 −$9 -293%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 4? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 11? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ap Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 11 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on April 28? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 7? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 8? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 24? Jun 16 $5 −$14 -269%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 8? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 21? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 13? Jun 16 $20 −$13 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on April 25? Jun 16 $12 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 30? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 20? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 30? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 11? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on April 1? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 4? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 18? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 21? Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $44 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $53 5h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $152 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,306.48 · official $1,306.53 (match) · 3500 history records