Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf15…3b51
world · 120 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$214 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$174 · open −$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$410
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses6 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions60
Markets (closed)63 / 120
History coverage7d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day467.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 60 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$174
14 days−$174
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 72¢ 78¢ $47 $51 +$4 (+8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $37 $37 +$1 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 60¢ $29 $34 +$6 (+20%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 40¢ $41 $31 −$10 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 56¢ 69¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+23%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? No 87¢ 80¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 65¢ 42¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-34%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 59¢ 63¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 51¢ 72¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+40%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 76¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 46¢ 57¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+94%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 26¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 30¢ 57¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+94%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 79¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 70¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+41%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 32¢ 35¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 48¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 30¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+177%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 67¢ 61¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 20¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 12 $0 −$1 -387%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 12 $1 −$2 -264%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $25 −$3 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 12 $10 −$7 -66%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $116 −$6 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -18%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 12 $4 $0 -13%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $15 −$2 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $4 $0 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $11 −$15 -136%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 11 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $67 −$18 -28%
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$2 -37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 11 $24 −$2 -7%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -18%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $6 −$2 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $34 −$5 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 10 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 10 $46 −$8 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $48 −$3 -5%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 10 $2 $0 -23%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 09 $1 $0 -18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $41 −$13 -31%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$44 -87%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $21 −$2 -7%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 09 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$119
world 24% −$24
politics 17% −$26
finance 10% −$23
tech 7% −$4
culture 1% −$2
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $0 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 81¢ $2 0m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 4m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $0 4m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $0 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 7m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 9m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 9m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $0 11m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $0 11m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $0 12m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 12m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $0 15m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 16m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 22m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $0 22m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $0 25m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 26m
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $0 34m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 41¢ $0 35m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 37m
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $3 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 86¢ $0 42m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 44m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 47m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $0 50m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 40¢ $0 50m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 51m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -39.7% -45.5% 10% 6% -31.8%
≤30d 63 -40.7% -46.3% 10% 6% -31.8%
≤90d 63 -40.7% -46.3% 10% 6% -31.8%
all 63 -40.7% -46.3% 10% 6% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover467.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.3% 6% -31.8%
10% ← realistic here -51.5% 3% -38.4%
15% -56.2% 2% -44.3%
20% -60.5% 2% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $409.67 · official $408.14 (match) · 3500 history records