Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf14…a601
other · 39 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$176
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions20
Markets (closed)19 / 39
History coverage13d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 20 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$32
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $18 +$4 (+28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 28¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 29¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Shanghai Sharks 36¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -84%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +173%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +156%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $10 −$3 -33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +49%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% +$15
sports 27% −$17
crypto 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $15 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 14h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 14h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 23h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 36h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 76¢ $28 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 36h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 36h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 61¢ $13 36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 36h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 46¢ $20 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 11d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 35¢ $3 11d
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 38¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +48.1% +34.0% 57% 57% +55.2%
≤30d 19 -20.6% -28.1% 32% 32% -10.4%
≤90d 19 -20.6% -28.1% 32% 32% -10.4%
all 19 -20.6% -28.1% 32% 32% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 32% -10.4%
10% -35.0% 32% -19.0%
15% -41.3% 32% -26.8%
20% -47.0% 21% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.41 · official $176.43 (match) · 74 history records