Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

AF 0xaf13…20af other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$4 (+30%) realized +$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown72%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+13.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+25.9%	+13.9%	75%	50%	+21.9%
≤30d	4	+25.9%	+13.9%	75%	50%	+21.9%
≤90d	4	+25.9%	+13.9%	75%	50%	+21.9%
all	4	+25.9%	+13.9%	75%	50%	+21.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.9%	50%	+21.9%
10%	+3.0%	50%	+10.2%
15%	-7.0%	50%	-0.4%
20%	-16.1%	50%	-10.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown72%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$3	+$3	+90%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$2	$0	+7%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$4	+$4	+106%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$4	−$3	-75%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$6	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	39¢	$2	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	54¢	$2	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	47¢	$1	2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$2	2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$6	22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	22h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$2	23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	34¢	$3	23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$2	24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$2	24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	65¢	$1	24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records