Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf12…4b5e crypto 391 markets active 0h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48 (-3%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%138W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$198
world 15% +$138
other 7% +$25
politics 1% −$13
economics 1% −$10
sports 1% −$4
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -25.0% -32.2% 47% 41% -37.8%
≤30d 17 -25.0% -32.2% 47% 41% -37.8%
≤90d 158 -51.6% -56.2% 25% 20% -40.8%
all 390 -28.0% -34.9% 35% 26% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 26% -13.1%
10% -41.1% 21% -21.4%
15% -46.8% 16% -29.0%
20% -52.0% 12% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses138 / 252
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)390 / 391
History coverage181d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliament Apr 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 18 $18 −$12 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 09 $4 −$3 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 08 $6 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 08 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 07 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 07 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 07 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Apr 06 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Rebuild" during trophy presentation? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 18h
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliament SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $1.98 (match) · 1142 history records