Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf0f…3f10 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,306 (-22%) realized −$3,055 · open −$5,251
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$770per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$257est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$4,530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,204
7 days−$3,323
14 days−$3,323
30 days−$2,234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$9,288
sports 46% −$950
world 1% −$284
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -23.1% -30.5% 35% 35% -40.8%
≤30d 23 -19.3% -26.9% 39% 39% -23.4%
≤90d 45 -18.1% -25.9% 38% 38% -27.3%
all 45 -18.1% -25.9% 38% 38% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 38% -27.3%
10% -33.0% 36% -34.2%
15% -39.5% 36% -40.6%
20% -45.4% 33% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$781) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$581 vs −$541 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$4,530
Realized−$3,055
Unrealized−$5,251
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$257
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage62d
Avg bet$770
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3,781 $2,836 −$945 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3,000 $1,587 −$1,413 (-47%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3,000 $107 −$2,893 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $307 −$225 -73%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $507 −$322 -63%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $536 −$536 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,121 −$1,121 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $851 +$805 +95%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $231 +$280 +121%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $409 −$409 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $299 +$393 +132%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $723 −$723 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $407 −$407 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $284 −$284 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $781 −$781 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $430 +$351 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,527 −$1,527 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $636 +$710 +112%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $510 +$525 +103%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $764 −$764 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,130 +$1,790 +84%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $611 +$436 +71%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $573 +$392 +68%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 24 $475 −$409 -86%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $408 −$356 -87%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 20 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $89 +$302 +339%
Eberechi Eze: Anytime Goalscorer May 18 $512 −$512 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $1,427 −$1,427 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $1,618 +$314 +19%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $997 +$628 +63%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 17 $982 −$982 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Draw at halftime? May 11 $355 −$355 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will King Green win by KO or TKO? May 10 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $251 +$125 +50%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $755 −$755 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,012 +$1,510 +149%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 09 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 04 $254 +$586 +230%
Manchester City FC leading at halftime? May 04 $504 +$449 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main Apr 26 $99 −$99 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Eric McConico win by KO or TKO? Apr 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Youssef Zalal win by KO or TKO? Apr 26 $349 −$349 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $323 +$277 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 11¢ $82 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $307 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 12¢ $185 5h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $507 7h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $536 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1,121 28h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $340 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $511 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $511 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $231 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $409 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $691 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $299 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $284 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $407 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $723 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $781 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $430 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,527 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $1,347 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $636 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,035 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $510 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,075 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2,028 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3,104 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3,911 8d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,919 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,130 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,529.60 · official $4,529.60 (match) · 105 history records