Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf0e…c21c sports 17 markets active 6d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-17%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$4
other 46% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -11.9% -20.3% 0% 0% -22.0%
≤30d 17 -27.1% -34.1% 0% 0% -29.7%
≤90d 17 -27.1% -34.1% 0% 0% -29.7%
all 17 -27.1% -34.1% 0% 0% -29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 0% -29.7%
10% -40.4% 0% -36.4%
15% -46.1% 0% -42.6%
20% -51.4% 0% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Evidence Makgopa: 1+ goals Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Luis Romo: 1+ goals Jun 11 $1 $0 -11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -7%
Dota 2: Stray Team vs Recrent Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Gr May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $2 $0 -7%
LoL: Bubliki vs Ronaldo Team (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Evidence Makgopa: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes $1 5d
Luis Romo: 1+ goals SELL No 87¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 44¢ $1 6d
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1 6d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? SELL No 90¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes $1 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 92¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Luis Romo: 1+ goals BUY No 95¢ $1 6d
Evidence Makgopa: 1+ goals SELL No 84¢ $4 6d
Evidence Makgopa: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $4 6d
Evidence Makgopa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 39¢ $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Under $1 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL South Africa 60¢ $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 62¢ $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 91¢ $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 61¢ $1 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $1 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records