Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

AF 0xaf07…77ef other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL −$11 (-4%) realized −$13 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day8.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+21.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+33.8%	+21.0%	25%	25%	-25.1%
≤30d	4	+33.8%	+21.0%	25%	25%	-25.1%
≤90d	4	+33.8%	+21.0%	25%	25%	-25.1%
all	4	+33.8%	+21.0%	25%	25%	-25.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+21.0%	25%	-25.1%
10%	+9.4%	25%	-32.3%
15%	-1.1%	25%	-38.8%
20%	-10.8%	25%	-44.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +34% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$18 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$199

Realized−$13

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day8.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	70¢	72¢	$99	$103	+$4 (+4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	37¢	36¢	$98	$96	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$7	−$6	-99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$51	−$41	-81%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$10	+$40	+416%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$100	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$100	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	75¢	$7	18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	37¢	$5	18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	7¢	$5	18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	8¢	$5	18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$51	19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$50	20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.21 · official $199.21 (match) · 9 history records