Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf07…65ef world 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-1%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$15
14 days−$16
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$43
other 25% −$7
finance 3% $0
politics 1% +$6
sports 1% −$6
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.2% -12.4% 29% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 30 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 3% -10.2%
≤90d 34 -1.3% -10.7% 26% 3% -10.0%
all 86 +3.1% -6.7% 36% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 8% -10.0%
10% -15.7% 6% -18.6%
15% -23.8% 6% -26.5%
20% -31.3% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage485d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $72 −$17 -24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $324 +$3 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $302 −$3 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $137 +$2 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $160 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $138 −$2 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $236 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $86 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $439 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $448 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $138 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $276 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $151 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $273 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $304 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $158 −$5 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $217 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $146 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $6 $0 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1,117 −$9 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $82 −$4 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $80 −$10 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $61 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $168 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1,029 −$7 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $974 +$1 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 12 $14 −$1 -8%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $1,066 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $25 −$1 -3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $34 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $48 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $29 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $25 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 21¢ $72 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $67 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $83 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $150 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $48 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $54 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $96 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $73 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $27 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $153 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $153 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $50 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $137 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $89 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $54 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $86 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $93 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $44 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $100 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.35 · official $0.00 · 332 history records