Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf06…dd8e crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$795 (-14%) realized −$795 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate61%54W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$143
politics 22% −$691
tech 7% +$5
world 4% +$4
other 3% +$2
economics 3% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.2% -22.4% 78% 33% -21.2%
≤30d 9 -14.2% -22.4% 78% 33% -21.2%
≤90d 21 -23.3% -30.6% 67% 24% -33.3%
all 89 -8.6% -17.3% 61% 12% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 12% -22.4%
10% -25.2% 4% -29.9%
15% -32.4% 1% -36.6%
20% -39.1% 0% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$30 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$795
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses54 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage520d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 04 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 31 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 31 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 31 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 28 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 28 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 28 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 28 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 28 $36 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 28 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Feb 13 $45 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Feb 13 $38 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Feb 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Feb 13 $38 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Feb 13 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 08 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 08 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 08 $39 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 08 $42 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 08 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 08 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 08 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 08 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 08 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 06 $349 +$33 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 06 $334 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 06 $312 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 06 $260 +$23 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 06 $128 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 06 $238 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 06 $215 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 06 $99 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 06 $249 +$33 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 06 $121 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 06 $153 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 06 $1 $0 -10%
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? Feb 06 $1 $0 -21%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 06 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records