Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf05…5efc sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$484 (-7%) realized −$387 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$233est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days+$31
14 days−$588
30 days−$588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$685
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -13.4% -21.6% 42% 42% -9.0%
≤30d 35 -12.0% -20.4% 43% 43% -17.2%
≤90d 35 -12.0% -20.4% 43% 43% -17.2%
all 35 -12.0% -20.4% 43% 43% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 43% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 43% -25.1%
15% -35.0% 43% -32.4%
20% -41.4% 37% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$168 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$387
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$233
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage8d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 94¢ 100¢ $120 $128 +$8 (+6%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 75¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $5 +$11 +214%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $20 +$14 +68%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $20 +$8 +37%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$5 -11%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $358 −$358 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $510 +$358 +70%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $582 −$582 -100%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $92 +$126 +136%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $440 −$47 -11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $440 +$338 +77%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $440 −$440 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $591 +$511 +86%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $436 −$436 -100%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $312 +$225 +72%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $405 +$519 +128%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$8 +152%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +37%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $201 +$147 +73%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $200 +$223 +111%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $985 −$985 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $132 −$132 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $333 +$276 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 5¢ $5 38m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 46¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 33¢ $31 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $120 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 75¢ $100 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 0¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 7¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 13¢ $21 21h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $20 22h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 63¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 65¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 6¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Gentle Mates 31¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Gentle Mates 16¢ $6 26h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 7¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 43¢ $34 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 25¢ $20 26h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 18¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL HyperSpirit 29¢ $28 29h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 20¢ $20 30h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 2¢ $5 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $45 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 44h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 81¢ $460 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 72¢ $408 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $121 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $389 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 4¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 10¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 23¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.67 · official $127.67 (match) · 187 history records