Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xaf05…135b other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$1
other 20% +$1
politics 14% +$5
crypto 11% $0
economics 4% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 -6.8% -15.7% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -6.8% -15.7% 29% 0% -9.8%
all 48 +6.1% -4.0% 48% 8% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 8% -8.6%
10% -13.2% 4% -17.4%
15% -21.5% 2% -25.3%
20% -29.2% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage449d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $28 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $61 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -46%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +271%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 23 $12 $0 -0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 22 $12 $0 -1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $10 $0 -3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $11 +$1 +13%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $4 $0 +6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 16 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 10 $12 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 27 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $15 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $13 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $28 8h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $32 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $29 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $1 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $28 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $24 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.05 · official $28.05 (match) · 145 history records