Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xaf04…1bf3 crypto 788 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$157 (-6%) realized −$146 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%431W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$6
14 days−$28
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 334 +0.5% -9.1% 70% 69% -9.9%
≤30d 515 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 61% -12.4%
≤90d 784 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 54% -15.3%
all 784 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 54% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 54% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 44% -23.4%
15% -34.7% 31% -30.8%
20% -41.1% 18% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses431 / 353
Open positions4
Markets (closed)784 / 788
History coverage43d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 784 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 70¢ 24¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 278 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $2.45 · 1822 history records