Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf03…9db4 other 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$855 (+4%) realized +$828 · open +$27
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate70%53W / 23L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$2,107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$61
14 days+$96
30 days+$674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$801
other 24% −$4
politics 1% −$38
tech 1% +$9
weather 0% +$3
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% +$5
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.0% -24.0% 50% 25% -12.5%
≤30d 11 -9.7% -18.3% 64% 27% -3.5%
≤90d 42 -5.5% -14.5% 62% 19% -5.9%
all 76 -0.7% -10.2% 70% 18% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 18% -5.9%
10% -18.8% 11% -14.9%
15% -26.6% 4% -23.2%
20% -33.8% 3% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$2,107
Realized+$828
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses53 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)76 / 82
History coverage237d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $1,367 $1,367 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $277 $326 +$49 (+18%)
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $200 $184 −$16 (-8%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? No 74¢ 57¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-23%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 25 $407 −$170 -42%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 25 $603 +$65 +11%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 25 $803 +$49 +6%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 24 $12 −$5 -39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,408 +$353 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,982 −$196 -10%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 07 $18 −$18 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $1,900 +$88 +5%
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 07 $11 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,511 +$402 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,405 +$106 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,430 −$57 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 24 $1,433 +$41 +3%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? May 22 $125 −$1 -1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 22 $19 +$4 +22%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 22 $61 −$2 -4%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 22 $13 +$9 +70%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,120 +$81 +7%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele May 19 $19 −$3 -17%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 19 $18 −$9 -49%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 16 $14 −$8 -58%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 16 $19 +$5 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,200 +$7 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 14 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $26 $0 -2%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 15? May 14 $18 $0 +2%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 14 $23 −$16 -70%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 11 $12 +$2 +20%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 11 $22 +$2 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 06 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 30 $21 −$7 -33%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last E Apr 30 $16 $0 +3%
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30? Apr 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between Apr 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 17 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 1? Apr 03 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 25? Apr 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $22 +$3 +11%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 25 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ma Mar 25 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 25 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? Mar 14 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on March 2? Mar 14 $16 $0 +3%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 14 $19 +$1 +7%
US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026? Mar 14 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 02 $23 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,367 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $200 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $669 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $852 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $23 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 53¢ $89 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 75¢ $129 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 41¢ $129 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $280 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $803 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $603 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 80¢ $258 28h
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $202 28h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 52¢ $7 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,408 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1,786 12d
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi BUY Yes 80¢ $18 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,982 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,988 18d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 83¢ $12 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,900 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1,511 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,405 31d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 91¢ $1,373 31d
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? BUY Yes 97¢ $11 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 95¢ $1,430 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $150 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,283 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,106.88 · official $2,106.88 (match) · 209 history records