Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf03…b6ce world 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%28W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$13
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$15
politics 21% +$1
other 19% −$6
sports 8% −$7
economics 6% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.1% -7.6% 60% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 21 +143.1% +120.0% 62% 14% -8.6%
≤90d 68 +44.1% +30.4% 40% 6% -9.1%
all 71 +39.5% +26.2% 39% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.2% 6% -9.4%
10% +14.1% 4% -18.1%
15% +3.1% 4% -26.0%
20% -7.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage527d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $181 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $108 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $109 +$10 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $174 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $98 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $115 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $31 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $110 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $56 −$2 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $78 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4 +$1 +36%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $43 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $157 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $49 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $2 $0 -2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $48 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $2 $0 +14%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2 $0 -7%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $2 $0 -8%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $2 $0 -8%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 10 $18 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $94 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 9m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $7 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $63 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $63 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $58 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $64 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $39 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $16 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $9 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $49 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $60 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.00 (match) · 359 history records