Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf02…57b4 politics 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate11%7W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$4
politics 41% −$6
sports 7% −$22
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 39 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 61 +0.9% -8.7% 11% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.8%
10% -17.5% 3% -18.5%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses7 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage118d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $274 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $266 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $224 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $287 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $287 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $260 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $260 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $214 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $469 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $275 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $178 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $225 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $26 $0 -0%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 27 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? Mar 26 $277 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $241 $0 -0%
Will Keegan Bradley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $250 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Mar 25 $199 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 25 $201 $0 -0%
Kings vs. Hornets Mar 25 $46 +$3 +8%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $279 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 23 $269 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $213 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 22 $256 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 19 $297 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $282 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 4h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $39 14d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $39 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 17d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 24d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $274 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $274 29d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $266 29d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $266 31d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 31d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 33d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $287 33d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $287 33d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $287 33d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $287 33d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $260 34d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $260 34d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $260 34d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $260 34d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $237 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.98 · official $44.98 (match) · 156 history records