Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AF 0xaf01…3840 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$46 (+4%) realized +$58 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$40
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +64.6% +48.9% 50% 50% -17.6%
≤30d 2 +64.6% +48.9% 50% 50% -17.6%
≤90d 5 +40.0% +26.7% 80% 40% -4.4%
all 5 +40.0% +26.7% 80% 40% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.7% 40% -4.4%
10% +14.6% 40% -13.6%
15% +3.5% 40% -21.9%
20% -6.6% 40% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.33 per $1 lost it wins $4.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage60d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $150 $137 −$12 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $86 −$16 -18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$8 +147%
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 07 $48 +$30 +61%
Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 07 $256 +$20 +8%
Fluent FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 07 $530 +$11 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.39 · official $137.39 (match) · 19 history records