Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf00…33a7 other 206 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized −$89 · open +$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%88W / 108L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days−$76
14 days−$120
30 days−$2,808
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$1,137
politics 23% +$164
tech 11% −$66
sports 8% −$407
world 7% −$255
crypto 6% −$267
culture 6% −$315
economics 1% +$25
weather 0% +$23
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +4.3% -5.7% 61% 33% -14.0%
≤30d 76 -60.3% -64.1% 20% 9% -58.4%
≤90d 87 -42.6% -48.0% 28% 17% -45.6%
all 196 -0.5% -9.9% 45% 32% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 32% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 28% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 22% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 19% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +32% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$50 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$1,487
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses88 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions10
Markets (closed)196 / 206
History coverage290d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 68¢ 84¢ $398 $499 +$100 (+25%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 88¢ $334 $324 −$11 (-3%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 50¢ $110 $156 +$46 (+42%)
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? No 49¢ 50¢ $147 $150 +$3 (+2%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 60¢ $64 $87 +$23 (+36%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $81 $79 −$3 (-3%)
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-7%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 86¢ $58 $61 +$4 (+7%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 40¢ 18¢ $99 $43 −$55 (-56%)
Will Erling Haaland score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 60¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Netherlands vs Swede Jun 20 $55 +$19 +35%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Brazil vs Haiti Jun 20 $86 +$15 +18%
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $49 −$5 -11%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $163 +$50 +31%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 20 $59 +$43 +72%
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals Jun 20 $110 $0 +0%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the Mexico vs South Korea FI Jun 19 $6 +$24 +396%
Will the match not air? Jun 19 $344 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 18 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 17 $54 −$53 -99%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $22 +$6 +29%
Will Alexander Sørloth score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists Jun 15 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Trent Alexander-Arnold score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $146 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 08 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 07 $52 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 06 $77 +$5 +7%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $55 −$5 -8%
Will Bernie say "Climate" in Maine? May 25 $8 +$23 +274%
Will Taylor Swift say "Christmas" on The Late Show on December 10? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during executive May 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "ID" or "Identification" during Memphis Roundtable? May 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Trump say "India" during Saudi PM events on November 18? May 24 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Miami address? May 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during Kentucky visit? May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Nik Airball be the biggest loser in the Hustler Casino Million Do May 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-01-14? May 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Nuclear" during Michigan visit? May 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Ozempic" during Ohio visit? May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "America First" during Miami address? May 24 $52 −$41 -79%
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during the FII PRIORITY Summit? May 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Nik Airball be the biggest winner in the Hustler Casino Million D May 24 $24 −$2 -8%
Will 'Hades II' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 May 24 $63 −$63 -100%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? May 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Will J.D. Vance say "Ultrasound" or "Cell" during the March for Life? May 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? May 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Iran" during Michigan visit? May 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 18-24? May 24 $18 −$9 -48%
Will Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Saudi PM events on November 18 May 24 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 3+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on May 24 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during tech signing event on Wedn May 24 $131 −$131 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 1h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $54 1h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $67 2h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 40¢ $8 3h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 40¢ $39 3h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi BUY No 55¢ $101 14h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $299 14h
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $63 15h
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez SELL Alvarez 18¢ $11 20h
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 39¢ $43 26h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Netherlands vs Swede BUY No 74¢ $16 27h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Netherlands vs Swede BUY No 74¢ $15 27h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Netherlands vs Swede BUY No 74¢ $24 27h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $191 27h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $105 29h
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez SELL Alvarez 18¢ $1 35h
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez SELL Alvarez 18¢ $1 35h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $109 38h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $2 39h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $0 39h
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $110 39h
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $49 42h
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Brazil vs Haiti BUY No 85¢ $86 2d
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 57¢ $59 2d
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $2 2d
Will Julian Alvarez score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $82 2d
Will Christian Pulisic score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $47 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $4 2d
Will the match not air? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,487.48 · official $1,488.47 (match) · 1174 history records