Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AE 0xaeff…725f other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$90 (+30%) realized +$89 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$89
sports 8% +$7
politics 6% −$1
world 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +45.8% +31.9% 100% 100% +31.9%
≤30d 4 +63.2% +47.6% 100% 100% +45.6%
≤90d 14 +30.5% +18.1% 57% 57% +29.0%
all 23 +37.5% +24.4% 57% 52% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.4% 52% +25.6%
10% +12.5% 48% +13.5%
15% +1.6% 43% +2.6%
20% -8.3% 35% -7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.77 per $1 lost it wins $3.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)23 / 31
History coverage163d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+25%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? May 29 $4 +$4 +78%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? May 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 05 $9 −$5 -63%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $14 +$26 +194%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $39 +$29 +75%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 07 $21 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 23 $5 −$1 -19%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Mar 18 $13 −$6 -50%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 18 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? Feb 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $5 +$10 +191%
Will the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jan 26 $10 +$15 +157%
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship? Jan 26 $6 +$14 +239%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Jan 13 $9 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 34¢ $5 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 45¢ $10 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 18d
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 27d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 30d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 30d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 30d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 30d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 31d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? BUY Yes $3 31d
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? BUY Yes $0 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 42d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 63d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 65d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 65d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 67d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 70d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $20 70d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $21 71d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.52 · official $67.52 · 178 history records