Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xaefd…27d8 crypto 1089 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$212 (-2%) realized −$344 · open +$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate74%795W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$104
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$318
other 21% +$30
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 166 +3.0% -6.9% 67% 58% -16.5%
≤90d 1077 -0.7% -10.2% 74% 60% -15.0%
all 1077 -0.7% -10.2% 74% 60% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 60% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 33% -23.1%
15% -26.6% 20% -30.6%
20% -33.8% 13% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,797
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$132
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses795 / 282
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1077 / 1089
History coverage57d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1077 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,550 $1,698 +$149 (+10%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-15%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 259 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $107 −$104 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 22 $7 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 22 $7 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 22 $7 −$7 -98%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 22 $7 −$7 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 22 $7 +$8 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 22 $7 −$7 -94%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 22 $7 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 22 $7 −$7 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 22 $8 −$8 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 22 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $7 +$4 +52%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $7 +$8 +105%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 22 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 22 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 22 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 22 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 22 $8 −$8 -98%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 21 $8 +$5 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 21 $10 +$8 +82%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 21 $7 +$5 +74%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 21 $7 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 21 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 21 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 21 $7 +$3 +40%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 21 $7 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 21 $7 +$4 +62%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 21 $8 −$7 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 21 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $7 +$7 +92%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $7 +$5 +65%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 21 $7 +$4 +55%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 21 $8 −$7 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 21 $7 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 21 $7 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 21 $7 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 21 $7 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 21 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 21 $7 +$4 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 21 $4 +$2 +34%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 21 $7 +$7 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 21 $7 +$5 +79%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 21 $7 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 21 $5 +$6 +129%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 21 $7 +$2 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 7d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 7d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 7d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,441 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $154 13d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $7 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 24d
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 24d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $7 24d
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 24d
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 24d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 24d
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $8 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 24d
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,797.29 · official $1,805.23 (match) · 2041 history records