Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AE 0xaefd…b0e6 crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%28W / 2L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
crypto 34% +$1
other 22% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 0% -9.4%
all 30 +0.2% -9.3% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses28 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage101d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $195 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $163 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $249 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 10? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 8? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 30? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $53 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 26? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 24? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 23? Mar 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 21? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 16? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 13? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 14? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 9? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $59 19m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $2 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $1 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $2 30m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $2 33m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $5 35m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $38 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 61¢ $33 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $124 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $124 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $162 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $163 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $145 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $145 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $104 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $12 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 69d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $13 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $13 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $14 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 78d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records