Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaefd…c7c3 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$97 (-6%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$132
14 days−$132
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$172
crypto 29% +$28
sports 14% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -35.4% -41.5% 27% 27% -21.0%
≤30d 15 -35.4% -41.5% 27% 27% -21.0%
≤90d 15 -35.4% -41.5% 27% 27% -21.0%
all 18 -29.6% -36.3% 33% 22% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 22% -15.7%
10% -42.4% 22% -23.7%
15% -48.0% 11% -31.1%
20% -53.1% 6% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$34 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage562d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $158 +$79 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$2 -10%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$54 -53%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 +$16 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 −$115 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$96 +186%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$26 -51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $252 +$84 +33%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order in first week? Jan 23 $260 +$16 +6%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Jan 23 $248 +$12 +5%
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night Dec 08 $50 −$7 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 17h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $107 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 19h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $42 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $147 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $44 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $23 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $185 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.89 · official $84.89 (match) · 52 history records