Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaefd…584d politics 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$3
other 24% −$4
sports 22% −$1
economics 5% $0
culture 4% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 72 -6.3% -15.2% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage375d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $279 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $67 $0 +0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 01 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $67 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $1 $0 -33%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $1 $0 -17%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $132 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 22 $66 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $140 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $1 $0 -11%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $139 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $140 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 14 $141 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $69 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $140 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $69 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 21 $1 $0 -20%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 16 $70 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $72 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 28 $70 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 04 $72 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 29 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $142 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $69 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 10 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $1 $0 -11%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will Emily O'Reilly win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 23 $73 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 35h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 35h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 25d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 42d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 105d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $67 137d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $68 141d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $68 145d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $67 146d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $67 148d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 148d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 149d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 149d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 149d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 149d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $64 149d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $64 150d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 150d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 150d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 150d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $66 150d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $66 151d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 152d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 152d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $67 152d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $68 153d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.39 · official $68.39 (match) · 399 history records