Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xaef9…9b3d
sports · 123 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$605 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$670 · open −$65
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,740
Realized+$670
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses58 / 39
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions26
Markets (closed)97 / 123
History coverage5d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 26 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$484
7 days+$670
14 days+$670
30 days+$670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 84¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Bo Nickal 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 85¢ 84¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 68¢ $89 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Australia 69¢ 68¢ $88 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Spirit 65¢ 62¢ $81 $78 −$3 (-4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 50¢ 38¢ $97 $75 −$22 (-23%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 53¢ 52¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ 66¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 79¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 60¢ 58¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-2%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $69 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 56¢ 56¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 51¢ 52¢ $63 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 63¢ $61 $63 +$2 (+3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 48¢ 48¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? No 42¢ 42¢ $52 $52 +$1 (+1%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 47¢ 46¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 81¢ 55¢ $73 $49 −$24 (-33%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 36¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $106 +$121 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $68 +$34 +50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $68 −$67 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 +$2 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $30 +$34 +114%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $18 +$18 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $124 +$56 +46%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $275 +$31 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $51 +$40 +79%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $41 +$27 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $256 +$46 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $56 +$30 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $289 +$35 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $66 +$37 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $68 +$39 +57%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $51 +$20 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $95 +$39 +42%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $84 +$18 +21%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $115 −$115 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $41 +$13 +32%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 11 $49 +$23 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $53 +$51 +97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $24 +$39 +163%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 −$4 -9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $104 +$57 +55%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $48 +$75 +158%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $65 +$58 +90%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $87 +$139 +159%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $74 +$96 +129%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $60 +$63 +105%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $75 +$48 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $65 +$58 +90%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $102 +$42 +42%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $60 +$82 +138%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $28 +$9 +32%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $37 +$84 +226%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Tomas Martinez Jun 10 $34 +$6 +17%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $79 +$35 +44%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $146 −$144 -99%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 10 $25 +$22 +88%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $158 +$34 +21%
Cigarran vs. Aboian: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 10 $22 −$1 -3%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $32 +$20 +62%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $46 −$45 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $36 −$36 -98%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $45 +$11 +25%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $49 −$48 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$539
other 16% +$114
world 2% −$22
politics 1% −$24
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 53¢ $76 13m
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $89 53m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 50¢ $13 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 50¢ $84 1h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $21 1h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 51¢ $59 1h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $1 1h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $29 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 65¢ $82 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $73 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $75 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $70 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 61¢ $46 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $60 4h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $64 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 61¢ $24 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $57 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $90 16h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $0 16h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $3 16h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $45 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $82 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $103 21h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 74¢ $101 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $68 21h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $68 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 54¢ $58 21h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $60 27h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $57 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 59% +1.9%
≤30d 97 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 59% +1.9%
≤90d 97 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 59% +1.9%
all 97 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 59% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 59% +1.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 51% -7.8%
15% -20.2% 46% -16.8%
20% -28.0% 38% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,739.84 · official $1,739.86 (match) · 222 history records