Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xaef6…9791 crypto 292 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%281W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$19
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$3
politics 3% −$37
other 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 +0.8% -8.8% 98% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 291 -0.6% -10.0% 97% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 291 -0.6% -10.0% 97% 0% -10.4%
all 291 -0.6% -10.0% 97% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 0% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses281 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)291 / 292
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 4h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.96 · official $19.96 (match) · 576 history records