Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AE 0xaef5…ee6b sports 31 markets active 6d ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$4
politics 19% −$1
world 6% $0
other 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +89.6% +71.5% 100% 100% +71.5%
≤30d 2 +77.1% +60.3% 100% 100% +60.8%
≤90d 5 +37.4% +24.3% 80% 80% +10.9%
all 31 +3.8% -6.1% 42% 23% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 23% -9.5%
10% -15.1% 19% -18.1%
15% -23.3% 19% -26.0%
20% -30.8% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage538d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $12 +$11 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $11 +$7 +65%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $23 −$23 -98%
Magic vs. 76ers May 06 $15 +$12 +83%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 15 $23 +$11 +50%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Phoenix: Jacob Fearnley vs Arthur Cazaux Mar 24 $11 +$18 +163%
Capitals vs. Avalanche Mar 12 $3 +$1 +49%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 18 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 2AM ET Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $218 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $431 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $216 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Oct 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 04 $3 $0 -0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $3 $0 -0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jim Chalmers be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 May 21 $7 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Jan 15 $421 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Jan 15 $421 $0 -0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 15 $422 $0 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Jan 15 $422 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 26 $218 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $12 6d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $11 25d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 42¢ $23 47d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 54¢ $15 68d
Celtics vs. Heat BUY Celtics 66¢ $23 82d
Nuggets vs. Suns BUY Suns 35¢ $28 90d
Phoenix: Jacob Fearnley vs Arthur Cazaux BUY Arthur Cazaux 38¢ $11 102d
Thunder vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 33¢ $4 154d
Capitals vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 67¢ $3 154d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 186d
Solana Up or Down - November 26, 2AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 208d
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 99¢ $6 208d
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 99¢ $11 234d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 234d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 234d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 234d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $215 234d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 234d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 234d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 234d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 234d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 234d
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 237d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3 237d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 99¢ $3 250d
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? SELL No 100¢ $3 250d
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? BUY No 100¢ $3 272d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3 272d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 291d
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $3 291d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records