Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AE 0xaef5…dc5f other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$384 (-14%) realized −$453 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$551per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$204
7 days+$204
14 days+$204
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$590
tech 24% +$58
world 20% +$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +36.4% +23.4% 100% 100% +23.4%
≤30d 4 -6.5% -15.4% 75% 50% -27.6%
≤90d 4 -6.5% -15.4% 75% 50% -27.6%
all 4 -6.5% -15.4% 75% 50% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 50% -27.6%
10% -23.5% 50% -34.5%
15% -30.9% 25% -40.9%
20% -37.7% 0% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$671 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$829
Realized−$453
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage27d
Avg bet$551
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 82¢ 90¢ $760 $829 +$69 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 27 $561 +$204 +36%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $50 +$11 +22%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $716 −$671 -94%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $664 +$58 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 82¢ $765 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $765 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $61 9d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No 81¢ $50 18d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $45 18d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $716 22d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $721 22d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $664 26d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $500 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $829.11 · official $829.11 (match) · 10 history records