Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AE 0xaef4…99d7 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$197 (+10%) realized +$198 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate68%41W / 19L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$74
14 days+$85
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% +$33
sports 26% +$184
other 24% −$13
crypto 7% −$20
world 7% $0
finance 4% +$1
tech 3% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.1% -13.3% 61% 39% +1.9%
≤30d 34 +10.6% +0.1% 76% 35% +5.6%
≤90d 56 -2.0% -11.3% 66% 36% +0.3%
all 60 -1.4% -10.8% 68% 35% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 35% +0.3%
10% -19.3% 32% -9.3%
15% -27.1% 25% -18.1%
20% -34.2% 22% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized+$198
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses41 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)60 / 68
History coverage119d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 39¢ 40¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$34 +168%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $51 +$39 +76%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $162 +$21 +13%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $131 +$11 +8%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 02 $50 −$2 -4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $92 +$93 +102%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $10 +$12 +119%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $51 +$31 +62%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Haotong Li win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Real Oviedo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5 May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Real Oviedo vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Connecticut Sun May 16 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11AM ET May 13 $31 −$10 -33%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? May 03 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 03 $5 $0 +4%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Galatasaray Esports vs Dark Passage - Map 1 Winner Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Zolotareva vs Yuan Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Sierra vs Pliskova Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Molleker vs Siniakov Apr 28 $6 +$4 +70%
Set 1 Winner: Krueger vs Hunter Apr 27 $7 +$3 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $10 37m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $30 38m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $20 39m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 41m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 45m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 45m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 46m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $20 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $20 16h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 80¢ $10 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $20 16h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 34h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 37¢ $20 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $51 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $10 2d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 77¢ $183 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.91 · official $218.91 (match) · 128 history records