Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaef3…9e4a crypto 242 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (177 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate80%193W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day176.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (177 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 28% -10.6%
≤30d 242 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 28% -10.6%
≤90d 242 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 28% -10.6%
all 242 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 28% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover176.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 28% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 12% -19.2%
15% -25.7% 7% -27.0%
20% -33.0% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses193 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day176.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $59 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $76 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $77 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $75 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$11 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $34 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$10 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $98 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1071 history records