Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xaef0…4806
sports · 109 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,444 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,167 · open −$1,275
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,781
Realized−$4,167
Unrealized−$1,275
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses42 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)104 / 109
History coverage111d
Avg bet$834
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 5 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$255
14 days+$656
30 days−$887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1,954 $1,506 −$448 (-23%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 63¢ 72¢ $296 $339 +$43 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $488 $330 −$158 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 30¢ 10¢ $910 $312 −$599 (-66%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $408 $295 −$114 (-28%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? No 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -17%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 11 $479 −$45 -9%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 10 $83 +$13 +16%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $150 −$49 -32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 08 $1,421 −$168 -12%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $513 +$784 +153%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $81 −$4 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $2,682 +$137 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 01 $105 −$11 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 01 $104 +$6 +6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 27 $743 −$203 -27%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? May 27 $314 −$28 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $268 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $27 +$52 +191%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $458 −$10 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $230 +$67 +29%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $7,029 −$791 -11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 23 $235 −$5 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $1,174 −$234 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $2,619 −$391 -15%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 11 $7,677 −$118 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 12 $2,195 −$478 -22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 02 $126 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 23 $188 +$50 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 23 $4,691 −$4 -0%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 23 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 23 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $350 +$180 +51%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $412 +$243 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $166 +$75 +45%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $64 +$202 +316%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $120 +$232 +194%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $48 +$72 +150%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 19 $7,966 −$411 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 18 $59 −$13 -22%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Mar 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $594 −$594 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Mar 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 17 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $59 +$26 +44%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Mar 15 $39 +$25 +64%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Mar 15 $21 +$18 +85%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Mar 14 $301 −$275 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% −$2,250
finance 20% −$841
sports 16% −$250
other 13% −$1,307
crypto 5% −$471
politics 1% −$199
economics 1% −$149
culture 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $199 33m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $100 53m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $99 54m
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 16¢ $4 37h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 17¢ $5 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $337 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $341 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $95 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL Yes 20¢ $97 3d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $61 4d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $369 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $318 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 42¢ $329 5d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 6¢ $3 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 50¢ $418 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 49¢ $420 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 54¢ $94 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $412 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $504 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 62¢ $497 7d
New pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $231 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $521 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,251 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $45 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 77¢ $46 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.5% -29.0% 12% 12% -19.3%
≤30d 23 +4.8% -5.2% 26% 17% -13.8%
≤90d 47 +3.4% -6.5% 34% 28% -14.1%
all 104 -7.8% -16.6% 40% 35% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 35% -13.9%
10% -24.5% 32% -22.1%
15% -31.8% 26% -29.6%
20% -38.5% 22% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,781.17 · official $2,781.18 (match) · 596 history records