Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AE 0xaef0…b68a sports 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$305 (+4%) realized +$291 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%54W / 48L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$442
14 days+$203
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$397
other 39% −$218
world 2% +$42
crypto 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -9.4% -18.1% 55% 52% -0.4%
≤30d 86 -11.2% -19.7% 53% 48% -6.3%
≤90d 102 -9.9% -18.5% 53% 47% -6.5%
all 102 -9.9% -18.5% 53% 47% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 47% -6.5%
10% -26.3% 39% -15.5%
15% -33.4% 31% -23.6%
20% -40.0% 17% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$32 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized+$291
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses54 / 48
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions7
Markets (closed)102 / 109
History coverage64d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $99 $79 −$20 (-20%)
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $63 $78 +$15 (+24%)
Will Mohamed Salah score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 33¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+18%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 22¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? No 96¢ 95¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 10¢ 14¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 26¢ $9 $14 +$6 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $54 +$24 +45%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $108 −$70 -64%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $330 −$169 -51%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $43 −$18 -42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $104 +$40 +38%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $295 +$113 +38%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $74 +$48 +65%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $11 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 −$3 -10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $33 +$47 +145%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $33 +$30 +88%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $21 +$6 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $137 +$64 +47%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $96 +$54 +56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $200 +$179 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 +$26 +88%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $49 −$44 -90%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $28 +$10 +36%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $123 +$30 +25%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $118 −$118 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 +$101 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +45%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$5 +16%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $96 +$44 +46%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 17 $44 +$16 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $173 +$43 +25%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $90 +$35 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $37 +$38 +102%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? SELL No 94¢ $10 37m
Will Team Spirit make a roster change before July? BUY No 96¢ $29 40m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 98¢ $78 45m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $54 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 55¢ $38 9h
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $6 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $108 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 60¢ $54 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $22 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $2 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $36 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $18 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $28 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $2 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $19 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $6 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $7 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $4 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $37 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $26 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $28 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $11 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 66¢ $5 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 66¢ $20 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $26 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $17 13h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $225 14h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 70¢ $43 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.73 · official $254.74 (match) · 350 history records