Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xaeed…462d crypto 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$17 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate65%88W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$113
14 days−$100
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$65
sports 16% +$22
other 11% −$24
world 3% +$4
politics 2% −$1
weather 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -37.0% -43.0% 43% 37% -31.0%
≤30d 98 -12.5% -20.8% 62% 50% -14.9%
≤90d 136 -8.2% -16.9% 65% 51% -13.4%
all 136 -8.2% -16.9% 65% 51% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 51% -13.4%
10% -24.9% 34% -21.6%
15% -32.1% 23% -29.2%
20% -38.8% 14% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses88 / 48
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage38d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 88¢ 61¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $151 −$50 -33%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$2 -53%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$6 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.00 · official $16.00 (match) · 344 history records