Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AE 0xaee8…1154 other 359 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10,391 (+13%) realized +$9,316 · open +$1,075
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate71%156W / 63L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day134.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$21,706now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,140
7 days+$1,306
14 days+$1,538
30 days+$8,033
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$2,820
tech 21% +$5,494
politics 20% −$1
sports 5% +$99
crypto 3% +$693
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +9.5% -0.9% 85% 28% +0.3%
≤30d 219 +23.8% +12.0% 71% 22% +4.1%
≤90d 219 +23.8% +12.0% 71% 22% +4.1%
all 219 +23.8% +12.0% 71% 22% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.0% 22% +4.1%
10% ← realistic here +1.3% 16% -5.9%
15% -8.5% 13% -15.0%
20% -17.4% 13% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$22 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.06 per $1 lost it wins $7.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$21,706
Realized+$9,316
Unrealized+$1,075
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses156 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions143
Markets (closed)219 / 359
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$220
Trades / day134.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 143 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 46¢ 72¢ $1,691 $2,650 +$959 (+57%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 93¢ $2,207 $2,236 +$28 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1,131 $1,113 −$17 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 66¢ 72¢ $984 $1,088 +$104 (+11%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $874 $956 +$82 (+9%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 70¢ 90¢ $626 $806 +$180 (+29%)
Will Czechia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 99¢ $680 $691 +$11 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 64¢ 91¢ $466 $664 +$198 (+43%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $1,004 $660 −$344 (-34%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 51¢ 66¢ $496 $645 +$149 (+30%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 64¢ 94¢ $394 $586 +$192 (+49%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 70¢ $633 $564 −$69 (-11%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 42¢ 25¢ $882 $528 −$355 (-40%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 76¢ $495 $505 +$10 (+2%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 78¢ $516 $493 −$22 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 99¢ $437 $447 +$10 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $506 $430 −$75 (-15%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 64¢ 92¢ $224 $320 +$97 (+43%)
Will Switzerland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $304 $308 +$4 (+1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $296 $295 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 34¢ $220 $267 +$47 (+21%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 36¢ $213 $243 +$30 (+14%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 72¢ $285 $243 −$42 (-15%)
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $235 $239 +$4 (+2%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 76¢ 80¢ $216 $226 +$10 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 15 $59 +$2 +3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $527 −$17 -3%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $1,644 +$105 +6%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $88 +$1 +2%
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group S Jun 15 $30 +$16 +52%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $3,882 +$969 +25%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $193 +$17 +9%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $11 +$6 +53%
Will Martin Ødegaard record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 15 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will Florian Wirtz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $49 +$6 +12%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $7 −$3 -41%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 14 $78 +$9 +12%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 14 $756 +$22 +3%
Will Federico Valverde record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $94 +$7 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 14 $18 $0 -2%
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the Wo Jun 14 $67 −$8 -12%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Paraguay be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Jun 14 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $83 +$17 +20%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Mistral have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage Jun 13 $181 +$15 +8%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage Jun 13 $77 +$1 +2%
Will Neymar win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
Will Mexico be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $177 +$7 +4%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $67 $0 +0%
Will Rodri win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $42 +$6 +15%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Florian Wirtz win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $26 +$4 +15%
Will South Africa be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gr Jun 12 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $581 +$27 +5%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Rayan Cherki score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +22%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 11 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 11 $22 +$38 +175%
Will Uzbekistan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $405 +$12 +3%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $430 +$35 +8%
Will Luis Díaz record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $45 +$2 +6%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 10 $218 +$4 +2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $492 +$15 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 25¢ $39 1h
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 71¢ $112 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 70¢ $14 2h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 69¢ $56 2h
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 3h
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 4h
Will Saudi Arabia be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Gr BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 11h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 11h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 11h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $32 11h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $230 11h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 11h
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Sta BUY Yes 51¢ $6 12h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $790 12h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $156 12h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $12 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,705.54 · official $21,705.96 (match) · 3500 history records