Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AE 0xaee7…1e5b sports 1021 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,717 (-20%) realized −$5,698 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%473W / 688L
Whale WR13%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Fees−$419est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$703
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 374 -54.7% -59.0% 21% 20% -96.5%
≤30d 961 -15.6% -23.7% 41% 40% -87.1%
≤90d 1161 -15.2% -23.3% 41% 39% -64.7%
all 1161 -15.2% -23.3% 41% 39% -64.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 39% -64.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 38% -68.1%
15% -37.3% 36% -71.2%
20% -43.5% 34% -74.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 13% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$79 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$5,698
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses473 / 688
Whale WR (big bets)13%
Est. fees paid−$419
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1161 / 1021
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ 90¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+75%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+82%)
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C INFURITY Gaming 64¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+56%)
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group C CHAOS 52¢ 47¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner TDK 42¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SPARTA 41¢ 37¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner ONSIDE GAMING 65¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+54%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Nuclear TigeRES 46¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 488 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) Jun 17 $327 −$327 -100%
Canucks vs. Kraken Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Academy vs megoshort - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: megoshort vs XI Esport - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -2850%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $388 −$388 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Flyers vs. Kraken Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Midnight - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $298 −$298 -100%
Oregon Ducks vs. San Diego State Aztecs Jun 17 $2 −$1 -92%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs 9INE (BO3) Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Ma Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Passion UA vs 1win (BO3) Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washington vs CSDIILIT (BO3) Jun 17 $632 −$632 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Passion UA (BO3) Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Brisbane International: Kamil Majchrzak vs Reilly Opelka Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jun 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Senators vs. Utah Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washington vs CSDIILIT - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 17 $1,252 −$1,252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Cloud9 (BO1) Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - BetBoom Storm G Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $467 −$467 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $440 −$440 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs BOSS - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fake do Biru (BO3) Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $388 −$388 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Most Wanted - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs BIG - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $3 13m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 51¢ $3 13m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 51¢ $3 13m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 49¢ $3 24m
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group SELL INFURITY Gaming 99¢ $9 56m
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 52¢ $3 1h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner SELL ONSIDE GAMING 100¢ $4 1h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner BUY ONSIDE GAMING 65¢ $3 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 48¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 44¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 42¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 42¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY INFURITY Gaming 65¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY INFURITY Gaming 65¢ $3 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $3 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $3 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ $3 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $2 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 44¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 44¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 44¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY INFURITY Gaming 62¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 41¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 41¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 60¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.08 · official $39.08 (match) · 3500 history records