Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaee6…22ce crypto 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-4%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%50W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day58.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -16.8% -24.7% 44% 39% -17.6%
≤30d 114 -16.8% -24.7% 44% 39% -17.6%
≤90d 114 -16.8% -24.7% 44% 39% -17.6%
all 114 -16.8% -24.7% 44% 39% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 39% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 34% -25.5%
15% -38.5% 27% -32.7%
20% -44.5% 22% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses50 / 64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 43¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 5¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 4¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.66 (match) · 227 history records