Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AE
0xaee5…9280
crypto · 2158 markets active 0h ago
4.0score
+$228 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,948 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized+$1,948
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1150 / 661
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1811 / 2158
History coverage31d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day76.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1811 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days+$439
14 days+$1,200
30 days+$1,961
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+96%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 54¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+85%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+83%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$2,292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 532 +13.5% +2.7% 61% 61% +6.1%
≤30d 1745 +20.8% +9.3% 64% 64% +10.9%
≤90d 1811 +19.9% +8.4% 64% 64% +10.2%
all 1811 +19.9% +8.4% 64% 64% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.4% 64% +10.2%
10% ← realistic here -1.9% 64% -0.4%
15% -11.4% 64% -10.0%
20% -20.1% 63% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.00 · official $24.00 (match) · 3500 history records