Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaedd…60d2 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% $0
politics 24% $0
other 17% +$1
sports 10% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 3% −$4
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 39 -0.7% -10.2% 26% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage273d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $36 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 29 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Sep 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $41 4h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $24 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $24 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $32 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $31 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $11 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $41 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $24 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $13 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 77¢ $37 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 77¢ $37 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 185d
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $24 258d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 259d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 259d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 259d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 259d
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $24 260d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 260d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 260d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records