Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AE 0xaedb…e8ea other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized +$10 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%22W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$76
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$84
sports 11% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -11.1% -19.5% 50% 50% -20.6%
≤30d 39 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 56% -13.6%
≤90d 39 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 56% -13.6%
all 39 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 56% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 56% -13.6%
10% -15.0% 46% -21.9%
15% -23.2% 41% -29.4%
20% -30.7% 31% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses22 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage10d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 16¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$13 +66%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 +$50 +243%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 +$9 +280%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $1 $0 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $31 +$14 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$16 +51%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 +$16 +51%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$5 +246%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 +$5 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 +$15 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +63%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +103%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +259%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 33h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 45h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $31 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $31 6d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $31 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $48 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.39 · official $8.39 (match) · 79 history records